AP source: Masoli invited to Ole Miss this weekend

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/30/2010 -

Mississippi coach Houston Nutt has invited former Oregon quarterback Jeremiah Masoli to visit the school this weekend, a person familiar with the situation told The Associated Press on Friday.

Masoli is expected to decide by Friday morning whether he'll visit Oxford. The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because Masoli has not yet enrolled in school.

Masoli was considered a possible Heisman Trophy candidate after a breakout season at Oregon, but coach Chip Kelly kicked him off the team after two brushes with the law in six months.

Nutt said earlier this summer that the Rebels weren't interested in Masoli, but the situation changed when backup quarterback Raymond Cotton left the team last week, just two weeks before the start of preseason practice.

The Rebels lost last season's starter, Jevan Snead, when he decided to skip his senior season and enter the NFL draft. That leaves Ole Miss with just two scholarship quarterbacks - redshirt sophomore Nate Stanley, whose experience came when he played briefly in the Cotton Bowl last January after Snead was injured, and junior college transfer Randall Mackey.

Masoli's been looking for a second chance and a new home this summer. He can play immediately this season under NCAA rules because he has already earned his undergraduate degree, but he must be accepted into graduate school.

Masoli joined the Ducks in 2008 as a fifth-string junior college transfer who was expected to redshirt. But he got a chance to play because of injury and held onto the job. In 2009, he guided the Ducks to their first Pac-10 title since 2001 and their first Rose Bowl since 1995. He threw for 2,147 yards and 15 touchdowns and rushed for 668 yards and 13 touchdowns.

The San Francisco native pleaded guilty in March to misdemeanor second-degree burglary in a plea deal after he was charged with a felony for stealing a pair of laptop computers and a guitar from a fraternity on campus last January. Kelly suspended him for the 2010 season. He was expected to redshirt and Kelly allowed him to practice with the team during spring practice.

Kelly dismissed him from the team after police cited him for possession of less than one ounce of marijuana and driving with a suspended license and failing to stop upon exiting a driveway in June. Masoli entered a guilty plea and paid a $613 fine last week.

The plea may be considered a violation of his probation for the burglary conviction, but it was unclear how Lane County prosecutors would handle the case. Masoli has fulfilled all of his other obligations in connection to that case, his attorney said.

A phone message left with the district attorney's office was not returned.

Nutt and Ole Miss can expect to take criticism if Masoli eventually joins the team. Masoli began repairing his image by launching his own website, www.jeremiahmasoli.net, to tell his side of the story and apologize.

``I made a few very poor decisions in the past year, and I apologize to my family, friends and fans for them,'' a letter on Masoli's home page reads. ``But I am not the person who has been portrayed in many media stories.

``I am not a thief nor a thug. The people who know me best know that is the truth.''

The website features pictures of Masoli, including one of him hugging his grandmother, a biography, career timeline, endorsements by former coaches and others he's close with, a resume and a section entitled media mistakes, detailing inaccuracies Masoli says have been made in stories about him.

Masoli concludes his letter by writing: ``I love playing football and want to continue to play. I'm still trying to figure out where that might be.

``Lastly, I want to thank my family, who I love very much. They have shown great support and forgiveness for the mistakes I made. I do not ever want to let them down again.''

---

AP Sports Writer Anne M. Peterson in Portland, Ore., contributed to this report.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

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MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

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