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02/18/2007 - Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Boston's Gerald Green soared over last year's slam dunk champion and then a table to win the 2007 slam dunk title as part of All-Star Saturday night.
Green received a perfect 50 score from a distinguished panel of judges for his final dunk to beat New York's Nate Robinson, the 2006 winner, on a night with interesting twists.
A pair of Miami Heat players were winners Saturday. Jason Kapono outlasted Washington's Gilbert Arenas to win the three-point shootout, while Dwyane Wade repeated as the Skills Challenge title victor.
Also, Detroit won the Shooting Stars challenge by default when the Chicago team took its shots out of turn in the final round.
However, the night belonged to Green, who compiled 91 points on a pair of dunks in the final round to beat Robinson.
Chicago's Tyrus Thomas and Orlando's Dwight Howard were eliminated before the finals, during the early rounds. However, Howard wooed the crowd by placing a sticker of himself on the backboard with his left hand while dunking with his right for his final dunk in the opening round. However, the dunk only added up to 42 points after the scores were posted by Kobe Bryant, Vince Carter, Julius "Dr. J" Erving, Michael Jordan and Dominique Wilkins.
During the dunk competition, Green changed his uniform and then his sneakers before walking away with the title. First, he put on the jersey No. 7 of former Boston dunk champion Dee Brown in 1991 for his final dunk of the opening round and leaped over a still Robinson for a jam, drawing a score of 47 to advance to the finals.
Robinson had trouble with both of his dunks in the final round, scoring a 39 on his first attempt and a 41 on the 10th attempt of his second dunk. Green netted a 41 on his first try and then came up with a perfect score by soaring over a table put in the lane, bringing the ball to his knees while in the air before hammering it through the basket.
Kapono tied Mark Price's final-round record with 24 points to win the three- point shootout. Arenas scored 17 in the final round, while Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki, last year's champion, had nine.
Memphis' Mike Miller, Cleveland's Damon Jones and Dallas' Jason Terry were eliminated in the opening round.
Wade posted a final-round time of 26.4 seconds to beat Bryant to win the skills event. Wade's first-round time of 31.3 seconds was second only to Bryant (29.8) and eliminated Cleveland's LeBron James (35.4) and New Orleans/Oklahoma City's Chris Paul (39.6).
Detroit's team of Chauncey Billups, Swin Cash and Bill Laimbeer won the shooting stars portion, made up of NBA, WNBA and former NBA stars. Scottie Pippen thought he led Chicago to a victory after hitting a half-court shot, but Ben Gordon and Candice Dupree didn't shoot in turn.
In the lightest moment Saturday night, Hall of Famer Charles Barkley backpedaled down the stretch to beat 67-year-old NBA referee Dick Bavetta in a relay race. Bavetta dove to the finish line, while Barkley jogged backward before falling to the floor in an event for charity.
The festivities were a prelude to the NBA All-Star game, scheduled to take place Sunday at the Thomas & Mack Center.
<< Repeat road: Murray ousts Roddick again
San Jose, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a repeat-type performance, Andy Murray beat
American Andy Roddick for a second consecutive time in the semifinals at the
SAP Open.
The third-seeded Murray surpassed the top-seeded Roddick, 7-6 (10-8), 6
<< Smith's three-pointer lifts Louisville over Marquette
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It was a happy homecoming for Jerry Smith,
as the freshman guard nailed the winning three-pointer at the buzzer,
lifting Louisville to a 61-59 win over No. 12 Marquette.
Dominic James hit a free
<< 19th-ranked Cornhuskers fall to Missouri
Lincoln, NE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlynn Savant scored 17 points and pulled
down 13 rebounds, leading Missouri over 19th-ranked Nebraska, 65-53, at the
Bob Devaney Sports Center.
Eetisha Riddle chipped in with 16 points for the Tiger
<< Stanford routs No. 15 Oregon
Stanford, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brook Lopez scored a career-high 26 points and
pulled down nine rebounds, leading Stanford over 15th-ranked Oregon, 88-69, at
Maples Pavilion.
Lawrence Hill added 15 points and four blocks shots for the Car
Flames burn Avalanche >>
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kristian Huselius had a pair of goals and added
an assist to lead the Calgary Flames to a 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche
in the second of three meetings between the teams in a six-day span.
Jarome Iginla
Perry scores in shootout to lift Ducks over Kings >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Corey Perry scored in the fifth-round of
the shootout to lift Anaheim past Los Angeles, 3-2, in the opener of a home-
and-home set at the Staples Center.
Teemu Selanne had a goal and an assist while
Sterling wins Jacob's Creek Open >>
Lockleys, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Unheralded American Scott Sterling only
managed a one-under 71 on Sunday, but it was enough to collect his first
Nationwide Tour victory at the Jacob's Creek Open Championship.
Sterling got to t
Ilonen takes the title in Indonesia >>
Jakarta, Indonesia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Despite a bogey on the final hole,
Finland's Mikko Ilonen shot a one-under 70 on Sunday to earn his first
European Tour victory at the Indonesia Open. He finished at nine-under-par 275
and won by a single s
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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American Idol Betting Odds: Season 6
The online gambling websites are in the process of deciphering each American Idol contestant and his or her chances of winning Season 6 to come up with the early American Idol betting lines.
Tim Dalton of MySportsbook.com has been locked away in a soundproof room coming up with all the latest tallies, we are told. "American Idol has become one of the most significant betting events of the year," claims Jack Black of MySportsbook.com. "Last year, millions were bet during the season across the globe, not just in America.It's tough early on since we really do not have a glimpse as to how well each of these individuals will perform solo on a week-to-week basis. It's like Week 1 of the NFL. Pre-season means nada!
We do know the 24 finalists however.
Sanjaya Malakar is the young man whose sister failed to make it into the Top 24. He's very low key but - unless he totally flubs - will probably win over the young girlie vote for a few weeks anyway. He's too young to go all the way, according to Payton O'Brien.
Brandon Rogers - Who?
Phil Stacy is the military guy who missed his daughter's birth because of the Memphis audition. He should go a good distance.
Chris Sligh - He's got the humor and in many ways he's the Anti-American Idol much like last year's winner Taylor Hicks was. And this is why he'll probably get pretty far in this competition. He's chubby, white with a big curly afro....but more importantly, a great voice! People love "real", not "real cute" to go all the way.
"Blake Lewis should go far because of his uniqueness and looks. He's the boy next store with a twist - he beat boxes. But on top of this, he's a great singer, and I adore him," Payton O'Brien relayed.
A talented beat-boxer Blake Lewis was a hit during the group sing in Hollywood but Simon explained that this is a singing contest just before he told him he was “in.”
Paul Kim has caught our own roving reporter, Jenny Woo's eyes.
"I love the fact that there is a Korean American on the show and he is bound to get more Asians tuning into the show," Woo said from her Miami Beach estate. "There has never been a major presence of Asian-Americans on American Idol in the past. He's a hottie with a nice voice so that should help to take him far. Expect heavy betting action from the Asian community."
Sundance Head - He's not perfect, but he's got the personality that will take him through a few weeks, plus he's got the lineage (son of Roy Head - whose 1965 single, "Treat Her Right," hit No. 5 in the charts)
And the others:
Rudy Cardinas
AJ Tabaldo - the 5th time is the charm
Nicolas Pedro
Chris Richardson
Jared Cotter
The girls
"Melinda Doolittle has one of the best voices," says MySportsbook.com Reporter and an acclaimed dancer in her own right, Destiney Lewis. "It is great to see a back up singer step out like she has. The girl needs to gain more confidence but that can also be a positive. I think she will go far."
Alena Alexander - Those tears (she never seems to stop bawling) should get her far.
"Single mom Lakisha Jones I suspect will be a pretty big favorite entering Week 1 of the competition," says Destiny Williams. Jones is an excellent singer and down to earth. "She'll have a wide appeal," echoed O'Brien.
Nicole Trellis - Seems to exert confidence.
Amy Krebs - a powerful singer.
Antonella Barba
Gina Glocksen
Hailey Scanardo
Jordan Sparks
Stephanie Edwards
Leslie Hunt
Sabrina Sloan
MySportsbook.com is offering a 20% signup bonus with an initial deposit (i.e. open your American Idol betting account with $300, receive another $60 in which to bet with).
Last two contestants will be?
1 Male/1 Female +100 (a $10 bet pays $10 plus your initial $10)
2 Males +170 (a $10 bet pays $17 plus your initial $17)
2 Females +130 (a $10 bet pays $13 plus your initial $10)
MySportsbook.com is an online sportsbook accepts Visa Credit Cards and online sportsbook accepts Mastercard Credit Cards for easy American Idol betting lines.
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