Nadal cruises into QFs; Verdasco rallies to shock Ferrer

Tennis Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rafael Nadal breezed in three sets over fellow Spaniard Feliciano Lopez Tuesday and moved into the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open, the only Grand Slam tournament the current world No. 1 has yet to win.

The top-seeded Nadal, looking to become just the seventh man in history to complete the career Grand Slam, continued his incredible service run in a 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 dismantling of the 23rd-seeded Lopez.

Nadal, the reigning Wimbledon and French Open titlist, has never reached a U.S. Open final, but would seem to have a decided advantage in his quarterfinal encounter against Spain's Fernando Verdasco. The eighth-seeded Verdasco reached the quarterfinals here for a second straight year with an incredible 5-7, 6-7 (8-10), 6-3, 6-3, 7-6 (7-4) win over the No. 10 seeded David Ferrer in a match that took nearly 4 1/2 hours.

Nadal, who has yet to have his serve broken at this fortnight, has never lost in 10 lifetime encounters against Verdasco, although the two played in an epic five-set semifinal at the 2009 Australian Open.

"He's a very complex player and one of the best players in the world," Nadal said. "He had an amazing comeback today against another friend. I have to play my best tennis if I really want to have a chance to win."

Noted in the past as a clay court specialist, Nadal has won a tour-leading five titles in 2010, but is looking for his first hardcourt championship since 2009 at Indian Wells.

Earlier in the day, there was another 4 1/2-hour match, as Switzerland's Stanislas Wawrinka downed Sam Querrey, leaving the Americans without a quarterfinalist. The 25th-seeded Swiss was a 7-6 (11-9), 6-7 (5-7), 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 winner over the 20th-seeded Querrey.

Also Tuesday, former semifinalist Mikhail Youzhny was a fourth-round winner. The 12th-seeded Youzhny handled former top-10 Spaniard Tommy Robredo, 7-5, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

Last year, Verdasco saw a round-of-eight loss to Novak Djokovic, which was his best result in Flushing Meadows.

Verdasco was able to win the match despite piling up 89 unforced errors and 11 double faults. He fought off four set points in the 12th game of the second set to force the tiebreaker. He then wasted a pair of set points during the tiebreak before Ferrer finally took control. During one point, a frustrated Verdasco slammed his racquet to the ground after delivering a wide forehand return.

After fighting off a fifth set point, Verdasco finally succumbed as Ferrer sent a backhand passing shot to move his compatriot down two sets.

After two strong sets for Verdasco, the fifth was a battle of attrition. Ferrer moved to a 4-2 lead, but gave up the next three games, with Verdasco taking a 5-4 lead after a sizzling backhander at the net.

Ferrer forced the tiebreaker, but Verdasco used his feet to outlast his opponent. On match point, Ferrer put down a perfect drop shot, but Verdasco raced to the left side and deposited the ball into the left corner of the court before crumpling to his knees in celebration.

The Russian Youzhny prevailed in just over three hours in a mostly-uneventful match at Armstrong Stadium. Youzhny tallied four service breaks, compared to only one for the Spanish loser, who captured the third set with his lone break.

Robredo, who was the lowest-ranked man (41st) still standing here, won his second-and third-round matches when his opponents retired. The 28-year-old fell to 0-7 in his fourth-round U.S. Open matches.

Spain placed six men in the round of 16, but that's now down to two with the matchup of Nadal and Verdasco.

"They play really, really well," Youzhny said. "Why? They have a lot of courts; they have a lot of good facilities to practice well. I think it's not really expensive to practice in Spain for Spanish people. In Russia now it's very expensive to practice in Moscow. Not everybody can do this. Before they had only good results on clay, but now, in my opinion, the hard courts are going a little bit slower than previous years. That's why they can play also well on hard courts."

The 28-year-old Youzhny reached the U.S. Open final four back in 2006.

Youzhny, who will appear in his fourth career Grand Slam quarterfinal, awaits Wawrinka.

This is the first Grand Slam quarterfinal berth for Wawrinka in his 23rd major tournament. The result also means there will be two Swiss men in the quarterfinals at a Grand Slam for the first time in the Open Era, the other this year being five-time U.S. Open champion Roger Federer.

The quarters will get underway here on Wednesday. The second-seeded Federer takes on fifth-seeded two-time French Open runner-up Robin Soderling in the final match of the night at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Earlier on Ashe, third-seeded former Flushing runner-up Djokovic will be opposed by 17th-seeded Frenchman Gael Monfils. The reigning Australian Open champion Federer was stunned by Argentine Juan Martin del Potro in last year's finale here.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value

If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture.  Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).

For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot.  The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.

TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the  drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.

"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,'  it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."

"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.

Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash.  Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win. 

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