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12/22/2006 - Siena, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After a strong 2006 campaign, Palermo looks to close out the year on Saturday against a Siena team that has not seen a win in eight Serie A games.
"We have to make the last effort in order to try to close this year in the best way ever although we know that it won't be easy in Siena," goalkeeper Alberto Fontana told the club's website.
The Palermo club has spent the majority of the last 30 years in lower divisions, but will travel to Siena standing third on the Serie A table, trailing leader Internazionale by 11, remaining the same amount of points clear of the relegation zone with 34 to its name.
The hosts have gone the opposite of Palermo as of late, starting out solidly in league play, but have not seen three points since October 29, including the club's latest defeat to Empoli on Wednesday of this week, while Palermo comes off a 4-0 demolition of Ascoli.
The visitors will be without striker Andrea Carraciolo due to a fractured toe suffered while slipping as he got out of the bath, sidelining the forward for up to three weeks, thankfully for Carraciolo this recovery time will be during the winter break.
Siena will welcome back Daniele Portanova from suspension, while Erjon Bogdani, Francesco Cozza and Alberto will all be available after overcoming injuries, as Roberto D'Aversa will be probable after not being able to train normally because of muscle issues.
In other Serie A fixtures this weekend, Ascoli looks for its first win of the campaign against a visiting Chievo Verona, while Livorno looks to rebound from its 4-1 whipping handed out by Sampdoria, who travels to Catania Calcio in a battle of four versus six.
Parma defender Fernando Couto takes on his former team on Saturday when Lazio travels to the Stadio Ennio Tardini, while Udinese welcomes in AC Milan to the Stadio Friuli and a pair of 15-point squads meet up when Messina travels to Fiorentina.
Reggina will continue its battle to stay out of the relegation zone when Empoli arrives at the Stadio Oreste Granillo, while unbeaten Inter looks to tie the Serie A record of 11-straight wins set by Roma last season when Atalanta comes for a visit and second-place Roma hosts Cagliari.
SERIE A WEEKEND FIXTURES
SATURDAY -------- Ascoli - Chievo Verona
Catania Calcio - Sampdoria
Fiorentina - Messina
Inter Milan - Atalanta
Livorno - Torino
Parma - Lazio
Reggina - Empoli
Roma - Cagliari
Siena - Palermo
Udinese - AC Milan
<< Pistons get 'Sheed back
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Pistons got one of their key players back this
week when Rasheed Wallace returned from a two-game absence to help beat the
division-rival Cleveland Cavaliers.
Wallace, who had missed the previous two wins
<< U.S. WNT to open 2007 against Germany
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The United States Women's National Team will
open the 2007 season by participating in the Four Nations Tournament from Jan.
26-30 in China.
The tourney will pit the U.S. versus some of the world's stronge
<< Griffey breaks hand
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cincinnati Reds center fielder Ken Griffey
Jr. suffered a broken left hand due to an undisclosed accident at his home,
the team announced Friday.
Griffey, an 18-year veteran and 12-time All-Star, will
<< Report: Browns' Frye has broken bone in wrist
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Browns quarterback Charlie Frye
reportedly has a broken bone in his right wrist.
Frye was hurt on December 3 against Kansas City and has missed the past two
games with what the team had d
Patriots sign P Sauerbrun >>
Foxboro, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Patriots signed former Pro Bowl
punter Todd Sauerbrun on Friday.
Sauerbrun, who was released by the Denver Broncos in October after serving a
four-game suspension for testing positive for t
Bucks need some road work >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Milwaukee Bucks can just forget about their five-game
home winning streak because it's on the road where this team struggles.
Milwaukee, which resides in last place in the Central Division, has lost four
straight o
Top three stay the same in FIFA Women's Rankings >>
Zurich, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Germany finishes the year as the
world's top women's team for the fourth year in a row in the FIFA World
Rankings which came out Friday.
The USA and Norway hold the second and third place
Playoffs Remain a Possibility for Rams >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The playoffs are still on the minds of the St. Louis Rams,
and they will try to do whatever it takes to stay afloat in the crowded waters
of the NFC postseason race.
St. Louis will shoot for its second straight win on Sund
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value
If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture. Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).
For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot. The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.
TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.
"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,' it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."
"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.
Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash. Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win.
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